So the Standish CHAOS report was released in 1994, estimating that the majority of software projects go over-budget by 189%. The presentation of the report was questionable at best, and the data contained in it seemed inconsistent, with little more than hand-waving to back it up.
Enter the second paper, Jorgensen and Molokken, actively calling out Standish on the numbers it presents. Good for you, Jorgensen and Molokken!
In the interview, the interview does a pretty weak job of grilling Standish about his numbers, and they both leave having answered very little.
I'm pretty sure Standish blundered this number, and covered its tracks by a) not disclosing research methods and b) significantly altering the following year's CHAOS report.
But this is all just my opinion. I've been wrong in the past.
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